Frost. Drought. Politics. Labor. The honest story behind coffee prices — from the people closest to the source.

The Conversation We Needed to Have

When coffee prices go up, the easiest thing to do is adjust the number and move on.

But coffee is never just a number.

So we asked Demilson to come to Toronto and share what is actually happening at origin. Not from theory. Not from headlines. But from the farms, the hillsides, and the communities behind Dancing Goats.

This is what he shared.

Straight From the Ground

Demilson flew to Toronto to speak about what he has been witnessing in Brazil.

Not from a distance, but from the daily reality of working directly with the sítio families who grow our coffee.

What he describes is not one single issue. It is a series of conditions that all influence the same outcome. And it begins with the weather.

2021: The Frost That Changed the Landscape

In 2021, Brazil experienced one of the most severe frosts in decades. It arrived suddenly and affected coffee trees across multiple growing regions. Some trees required multiple harvest cycles to recover fully.

This matters because Arabica coffee follows a natural biannual cycle. One productive year is typically followed by a lower-yield year. When frost hits during a productive cycle, the impact can extend across several seasons, not just one harvest.

A meaningful portion of national production was affected, which influenced global supply expectations in the years that followed.

Then Came the Drought

As recovery began, the climate shifted again.

From 2023 to 2024, Brazil experienced an extended dry period, one of the most significant in recent history. In key coffee regions, rainfall during critical development months dropped far below seasonal expectations.

Producers described conditions they had not seen before.

Coffee pricing responded quickly, reflecting the uncertainty within the supply chain. In specialty coffee, stability depends heavily on predictable weather, and unpredictability creates pressure across every stage.

This is not unique to one region. Climate patterns are becoming less predictable across many coffee-growing areas globally.

Then Came the Policy Shifts

At different points in time, changes in international trade policy have influenced how coffee moves through global logistics systems. These shifts can affect routing, timing, and cost before coffee even reaches a roastery.

In response to changing conditions, supply chains often adjust to find more direct and stable pathways. Sometimes that means rerouting shipments entirely to ensure consistency for producers and roasters alike.

Coffee is not only agriculture. It is also logistics, timing, and coordination across borders.

And Then There Is Labor

Of all the factors influencing coffee cost, labor is one of the most significant.

In Brazil, a large portion of production is still done by hand. Picking cherries on steep terrain. Sorting by hand. Drying and turning coffee multiple times a day under the sun.

The landscape does not allow for full automation, so people remain at the centre of every step.

When labor costs change, it affects the entire system that depends on it. This is not about efficiency. It is about the real cost of producing coffee in this environment.

Through All of It

Through frost, drought, shifting conditions, and rising costs, the sítio families continue to show up for their work.

That consistency is what carries every bag of Dancing Goats forward.

And it is what ends up in your cup, quietly, every time.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS: INSIDE COFFEE PRICING

Q. Why has the price of coffee gone up so much recently?

A. Coffee pricing has been influenced by a combination of climate conditions, labor costs, and changes in global logistics. Severe frost and extended drought periods in Brazil have affected supply, while rising production costs and supply chain adjustments have contributed to overall increases in market pricing.

Q. How does climate affect coffee production?

A. Coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions. Arabica coffee in particular requires stable temperatures and predictable rainfall. Shifts such as droughts or frosts can affect both yield and quality, sometimes across multiple harvest cycles due to the plant’s natural growth rhythm.

Q. What is the Arabica biannual cycle?

A. Arabica coffee trees naturally alternate between a higher-yield year and a lower-yield year. This cycle is part of how the plant grows. When environmental stress occurs during a high-yield year, the effects can extend into subsequent seasons and reduce recovery time.

Q. What does fair pricing mean in specialty coffee?

A. Fair pricing refers to paying producers in a way that reflects the true cost of production, including labor, land, and long-term sustainability. In regions where much of the work is manual, labor is a major part of the cost structure, making fair pricing essential for maintaining farming livelihoods.